Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026

The Federal Reserve released its September 15–16 meeting minutes on October 7. They reflect information available at the meeting.

A unanimous rate increase

The full minutes, also published on October 7, record a 12–0 vote to raise the federal funds target range by a quarter percentage point to 3.75–4 percent. Participants cited elevated inflation, solid economic growth and a labor market near full employment. They judged that higher rates would help bring inflation back to the 2 percent goal sooner.

Inflation estimates depend on methodology

Staff estimated August annual PCE inflation at 3.8 percent and core inflation at 3.4 percent. Using the new methodology that the Bureau of Economic Analysis planned to introduce at September’s end, those estimates were 3.6 and 3.2 percent. These were staff estimates available during the meeting, rather than confirmation of subsequently published figures. Staff attributed higher inflation mainly to earlier tariffs, energy and input costs, and technology goods linked to the AI buildout.

Stable employment, uneven household pressures

The unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in July and August. Participants generally considered employment conditions stable, although several highlighted low hiring and job-finding rates and persistently elevated long-term unemployment. They also described solid consumer spending: several said stock gains supported higher-income households, while higher energy prices disproportionately squeezed the real disposable income of lower- and middle-income households.

AI investment brings competing pressures

Participants said AI infrastructure investment was boosting business spending and contributing to inflation pressures. They generally expected AI investment to improve productivity and potential output in coming years, but stressed substantial uncertainty about the size and timing of those gains. Staff projected inflation would reach 2 percent in 2029, while judging the risks tilted toward higher inflation than forecast.

Another increase remains conditionalAnalysis

Most participants thought another rate increase would likely be appropriate by year end, but future decisions would depend on incoming information. The next meeting was scheduled for October 27–28. For readers, this makes subsequent inflation and employment data important tests of the September outlook; the minutes do not establish what the Committee will decide in October.